In case you haven’t noticed by now, it’s been quite a while since New Jersey has received a statewide, steady rainfall. According to data from the Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist (ONJSC) here at Rutgers University, statewide precipitation averaged 2.19” in the month of July, which is 2.52” below the 1991-2020 average. Central NJ, which is where drought conditions currently reside, was the driest region of the state with less than 2.00” of rain. This, combined with very hot days in July and early August, have led to horrible looking lawns and dying leaves.
While we would expect that water supplies are generally lower in the Summer due to higher demand for activities such as watering gardens and lawns, the lack of rain and the lack of precipitation in the previous Winter have exacerbated the dry conditions here in New Jersey. From late Fall into the early Spring, the state experienced a string of months averaging below normal precipitation from November 2021 through March 2022. New Jersey relies on winter weather to help “charge up” our water levels ahead of the hot summer months, but the past Winter did not do much in lending a helping hand.
Last week, The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) issued a statewide Drought Watch, something that hasn’t been issued since 2016 (some of those became warnings later on). The NJDEP is urging residents to try to conserve water in order to help mitigate water supply concerns. Dr. David Robinson, the New Jersey State Climatologist and professor here at Rutgers University, sits on the committee that made the recommendation to DEP Commissioner Shawn LaTourette to issue that watch. He says the committee “felt it was prudent to provide a heads up to NJ residents and businesses concerns that water resources are being depleted at a more rapid pace than normal.” While there are no statewide water restrictions in place, New Jersey American Water has issued a mandatory odd/even watering day schedule for the customers in their territories in Monmouth and Ocean counties.
While the US Drought Monitor has instituted a “D1 – Moderate Drought” for most of Central NJ, the watch issued by the NJDEP and the Drought Monitor classifications don’t go hand-in-hand. Dr. Robinson tells us that the NJDEP watches focus more on water supply levels and behavior, while the US Drought Monitor looks at more broad indicators that react faster than water availability. Last week’s US Drought Monitor update also showed an area of “D2 – Severe Drought” for small portions of Essex, Hudson and Union counties, making up only 0.57% of the state. However, Dr. Robinson tells us that area mainly “bled over” from conditions in parts of NYC.
While we have seen some scattered thunderstorms at times this Summer, these kinds of events are simply not enough to help us overcome the drought conditions. “You don’t need to make up the complete precipitation deficit to pull out of drought or abnormally dry conditions. Too much rain too quickly (several inches in a few hours) won’t be as beneficial as say a soaking rainfall over several days or episodes,” Dr. Robinson said.
As the days go by and the drought worsens, crops, plants and trees become increasingly fragile. In addition, wildfires can be sparked more easily and spread easily as well. As of today, August 16th, the Fire Danger Level remains at moderate to high levels. Historically observed impacts of a moderate drought here in NJ also includes a decline in honey production, as well as hay and grain yields.
Unfortunately, recent rain chances that were modeled by guidance a few days ago to bring us some beneficial rain early this week had dwindled down to a slight chance for a spotty shower, and even that hasn’t materialized.