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User Guide

Version 3.0 User Guide

Jonathan Eckstein, with assistance from Sohum Sanghvi

June 2019 (Security Detail Updates October 2022)

 

About Yasai

The YASAI.XLA add-in is intended is intended for teaching elementary Monte Carlo simulation. It does not provide all of the functionality of @Risk, Crystal Ball, and other commercial products, but should be sufficient for teaching purposes.  It also has some features that commercial produces lack.  A key advantage is that YASAI.XLA consists of a single downloadable file that can be run on any PC or Mac with a recent version of Excel, without requiring administrator privileges. It is also designed to be very straightforward to use. In exchange for this simplicity, YASAI may run simulations slower than commercial products, since all the random number generation code is interpreted in Visual Basic.

 

Downloading and Installing Yasai

Downloading (All Browsers and Operating Systems)

  1. Download the YASAI.XLA file from the “Downloads” page on the YASAI website.  Do not let your browser open the file directly in Excel.  Instead simply save the file somewhere convenient (the default folder is usually “Downloads”)
  2. Some browsers may rename the YASAI.XLA file to YASAI.XLS.  If this occurs, manually change the name back to YASAI.XLA before proceeding with the remainder of these instructions.
  3. If necessary, move the YASAI.XLA file to some location where you will not inadvertently delete it.


Security Policy Adjustments

Excel has become increasingly security minded over the years.  Before attempting to install YASAI, please make the following adjustments.  The following directions are for Windows, but the procedure for Macs should be similar.

  1. Launch Excel.
  2. Click the “FILE” tab above the ribbon.
  3. Click the “Options” button at the lower left of the window.
  4. Click “Trust Center” on the left of the resulting Options dialog box.
  5. Click the “Trust Center Settings…” button.
  6. If this option is available, select “Trusted Locations” on the left panel (if this option is not available, skip to step 9)
  7. Click the “Add New Location…” button.
  8. In the resulting dialog box, enter or browse to the location of the folder containing YASAI.XLA, and click “OK”.
  9. Click “Macro Settings” on the left panel.
  10. Check “Trust access to the VBA project object model”
  11. Optionally, click the radio button for “Enable VBA macros (not recommended…) — in principle, it should not be necessary, but sometimes appears to be.
  12. Click “OK”.


Installation for Windows Excel 2013/2016/365

  1. Launch Excel.
  2. Perform the security policy adjustments listed above.
  3. Click the “FILE” tab above the ribbon.
  4. Click the “Options” button at the lower left of the window.
  5. Click “Add-Ins” on the left of the resulting Options dialog box.
  6. Select “Excel Add-Ins” in the pull-down menu at the bottom of the dialog box, and then push the adjacent “Go…” button.
  7. You will now be at the “Add-Ins” dialog box (the add-in manager).
  8. Click the “Browse” in the resulting dialog box, locate the YASAI.XLA file you saved, select it, and click “OK”.
  9. Select “OK” to exit the add-in manager.

YASAI should now be loaded.  An “Add-Ins” pane should appear in the ribbon interface.  On this pane, there should be a button labeled “YASAI”.  If you click it,several options should appear, starting with “Simulation…”.  If the currently visible Excel object is a chart rather than a worksheet, the first option in the YASAI button should instead be “Charts…” and there will be only two options.

Installation procedures for older versions Windows Excel are generally similar.  You find the add-in manager and then browse to find YASAI.XLA.

Installation for Mac Excel 2011

  1. Launch Excel
  2. From the “Tools” menu in the menu bar, select “Add-Ins”
  3. The add-in manager dialog box should appear.  Click “Select”, locate the YASAI.XLA file you saved, select it, and click “OK”.
  4. Click “OK” to exit the add-in manager.

YASAI should now be loaded.  A new menu “YASAI” should appear in the menu bar, with the options “Simulation…”, “Charts…”, and so forth.  If the currently visible Excel object is a chart rather than a worksheet, the first option in the YASAI button should instead be “Charts…” and there will be only two options.

Installation for Mac Excel 2016

  1. Launch Excel
  2. From the “Tools” menu in the menu bar, select “Excel Add-Ins”
  3. The add-in manager dialog box should appear.  Click “Browse”, locate the YASAI.XLA file you saved, select it, and click “OK”.
  4. Click “OK” to exit the add-in manager.

YASAI should now be loaded.  However, its options may not appear until you open a new workbook.  The next time you open a workbook, you should see an “Add-Ins” pane in its ribbon.  Within this pane should be five new popup buttons, the first of which should be “YASAI_Simulation”.  If the currently visible Excel object is a chart rather than a worksheet, there should be only two new buttons, the first of which should be “YASAI_Charts” and there will be only two options.

Upgrading from Earlier versions of YASAI

If you are upgrading from an earlier version of YASAI, just follow the same installation instructions above.  After selecting the YASAI.XLA file in the add-in manager and clicking “OK”, you may see a message that “a file with the same already exists in the same location” and asking whether you wish to replace it.  Click “Yes”.

 

YASAI Functions for Generating Random Variables

YASAI provides Excel functions that return random numbers with specified distributions. They will generally return different, randomly chosen values every time you recalculate a spreadsheet. The currently available random number generation functions are:

GENUNIFORM (a, b): Both arguments are numbers. Normally, it is expected that a < b. If so, a random number uniformly distributed over the interval [a, b)  — that is, x such that a < x < b — is returned. If a = b, then the value a (or equivalently b) is returned. If a > b, an error value is returned.

GENNORMAL (m, s): Both arguments are numbers. If s < 0, an error value is returned. If s is zero, the return value is m. Otherwise, a random value with a normal distribution with mean m and standard deviation s is returned.

GENBINOMIAL (n, p): The first argument n must be a nonnegative integer, and the second argument p must be a number in the range [0, 1]. Otherwise, an error value is returned. If these conditions are met, then the return value is an integer drawn randomly from a binomial distribution with n trials and probability p of success at each trial. If n = 0, then the return value is always 0. The implementation is efficient even when n is large.

GENPOISSON (m): The argument m is a nonnegative number. A negative argument causes an error value to be returned. A zero argument causes zero to be returned. Otherwise, the return value is randomly chosen from a Poisson distribution with mean value m. The implementation is efficient even when m is large.

GENTABLE (V, P): The arguments V and P are blocks of cells or lists (an example of a list is “{1,3,7}”) having the same number of cells.  Essentially, the function returns each value in V with the probability specified by the corresponding element in P.  If the two arguments have the same number of cells but differing numbers of rows and columns, the correspondence is determined by scanning first across the first row, then across the second row, and so forth.  Non-numeric entries in P are treated as if they were zero.  If the two arguments do not have the same number of cells, or if P contains any negative numbers, or if P contains only zeroes, an error value is returned.  If the values in P do not sum to 1, they are rescaled proportionally so that they do.  For example, GENTABLE({1,2,3},{.2,.5,.3}) returns 1 with probability 0.2, 2 with probability 0.5, and 3 with probability 0.3.

GENEXPON (a): The argument must be a positive number, or an error value is returned. If the argument is positive, the return value is randomly chosen from an exponential distribution with mean value 1/a.

GENGEOMETRIC (p):  Returns a geometric random variables with a probability p of being 1.  This variable is equal to the number of trials of a mean p Bernoulli (or equivalently, GENBINOMIAL(1,p)) variable until the value 1 is obtained.  The value of p must be greater than 0 and less than or equal to 1, or an error value is returned.

GENTRIANGULAR (a, b, c):  Returns a value from a triangular distribution with minimum a, mode b, and maximum c.  The arguments must be numbers with the property a < b < c, or an error value is returned.

GENLOGNORMAL (m, s): Generates a lognormal random variable, and is equivalent to exp(GenNormal(m, s)).  The restrictions on the arguments are the same as for GENNORMAL.

 

Specifying Scenarios

In YASAI, decision variables are called parameters.  For each possible value combination for the parameters, YASAI obtains a sample, recording the values of all the output variables.   YASAI provides the function SIMPARAMETER(L, name, group) to specify each parameter:

  • The first argument, L, is a block of cells or a list specifying the possible return values.
  • The name argument is a character string describing the parameter, and is used only in the output reports.  If it is omitted, its value is taken from the cell containing the formula — for example, if the SIMPARAMETER function is in cell C12, the default name of the parameter is “C12”
  • The group argument is optional and defaults to 1 if omitted.  It may be any whole number between 1 and 20 (values outside this range produce an error value).  For simplicity, all parameters within the same group should have the same number of values in L.

Parameters with the same group number vary in “lock step” with one another: suppose the only two cells with SIMPARAMETER functions contain

  • SIMPARAMETER({10, 2, 6, 4}, “Bill”, 1)
  • SIMPARAMETER({1.2, 1.5, 1.8, 2.3}, “Nancy”, 1)

Then YASAI will try the following four combinations of parameter values:

  • Bill=10   Nancy=1.2
  • Bill=2     Nancy=1.5
  • Bill=6     Nancy=1.8
  • Bill=4     Nancy=2.3

If two parameters have different group numbers, YASAI will try all possible combinations of their values. For example, suppose that the SIMPARAMETER calls are

  • SIMPARAMETER({23.1, 24.2, 27.1}, “Bruce”, 1)
  • SIMPARAMETER({-10, 20}, “Adam”, 2)

Then YASAI will try the six parameter combinations

  • Bruce=23.1   Adam=-10
  • Bruce=24.2   Adam=-10
  • Bruce=27.1   Adam=-10
  • Bruce=23.1   Adam=20
  • Bruce=24.2   Adam=20
  • Bruce=27.1   Adam=20

You can combine the two techniques: YASAI tries all possible choices of the parameter selections that are in different groups, but parameters within the same group move in “lock step”. For example, suppose that a model has the following SIMPARAMETER functions:

  • SIMPARAMETER({1, 2, 3}, “Fred”, 1)
  • SIMPARAMETER({100, 170, 200}, “George”, 1)
  • SIMPARAMETER({1000, 2000}, “Amy”, 2)

Then YASAI will test the following parameter combinations:

  • Fred=1   George=100   Amy=1000
  • Fred=2   George=170   Amy=1000
  • Fred=3   George=200   Amy=1000
  • Fred=1   George=100   Amy=2000
  • Fred=2   George=170   Amy=2000
  • Fred=3   George=200   Amy=2000

Older versions of YASAI provided a different function, called PARAMETER, for specifying parameters.  This function was similar to SIMPARAMETER, but it made testing combinations of parameter values from multiple lists more complicated.  You may find a description of the PARAMETER function in earlier versions of the user guide.

It is not recommended that you mix SIMPARAMETER and PARAMETER specifications in the same model.  If you do, however, all parameters specified with PARAMETER are treated as being in group 1.

 

 

Specifying Output

To specify an output of the simulation, use the formula SIMOUTPUT(x, name): This function returns the value x. During simulation runs, the values of x encountered are saved for later analysis, as described below. The argument name is a character string to describe the output in the simulation reports. For example a cell containing =SIMOUTPUT(A4+B7,”Profit”) defines an output called “Profit” whose value is A4+B7.

If you omit the name argument, YASAI uses the position of the current cell (for example, “G12”) as the output name. If you enable the “Simulate all sheets” option (see the next section) and omit the name argument, then YASAI includes the sheet name in the output name (for example, “Sheet1!G12”).

If you explicitly give two or more outputs the same name, then YASAI will merge the sample data for those outputs into one larger sample.

 

Running the Simulation

Once you have built your model, specified scenarios (if any), and specified outputs, you can run your simulation. To do so, select “YASAI Simulation” from the Tools menu. This will cause the following dialog box to appear:

YASAI analyzes your spreadsheet to determine how many scenarios appear to be needed.  It places this number in the default number of scenarios box.  If this number is satisfactory, select the “Default” button.  If you would like a different number of scenarios, click on the “set to” button and enter the number of scenarios you want.

The “Sample Size” box is the number of times YASAI will recalculate your model for each scenario.  It defaults to 1000, but you can enter any positive whole number.

The random number seed determines the sequence of pseudorandom numbers that YASAI generates. Optionally, you may indicate a fixed random number seed to use. If you specify a random number seed, YASAI should produce the same results every time you run a model, so long as you do not make changes to its formulas. If you leave the random number seed blank, YASAI will construct a seed from the system clock, and your simulation results will be different each time you run a model. If you check the “Use same random number seed for each scenario” option, YASAI resets the seed to the same value at the beginning of each scenario (this resetting is generally good practice because it reduces the variability of results between different scenarios, and is the default).

The “Simulate all sheets” option controls the extent of recalculations that YASAI performs during the simulation. If the option is unchecked (the default), each sample point in the simulation will be obtained by recalculating the currently active sheet of the currently active workbook. If you check “Simulate all sheets”, then each sample point will be obtained through a full recalculation of all sheets of all currently open workbooks. Such recalculations could be much slower than recalculating single sheets, so you should only use this option if your model uses multiple sheets. If you have multiple YASAI workbooks open simultaneously and perform a simulation with “Simulate all sheets” checked, all open workbooks will effectively be merged into a single larger model, and the simulation results will show combined results from this merged model. Therefore, you should typically have only one workbook open when selecting “Simulate all sheets”. A warning dialog box will appear if you check “Simulate all sheets” when multiple workbooks are open.

The “Dump internal simulation data” option (a new feature as of version 3.0) which outputs the entire sample data for every SIMOUTPU variable into a separate spreadsheet ply. When this option is checked, the simulation will run first, and the simulated values for each variable and scenario will be inserted into a a new worksheet.

If you use SIMPARAMETER on more than one sheet of your currently open workbooks, the default number of scenarios may change when you check or uncheck “Simulate all sheets”.

Once you have selected your simulation options, press “Simulate” to run the simulation, or “Cancel” to return to Excel.

When you run the simulation, YASAI will recalculate the results S times for each combination of parameter values, where S is the selected sample size. If there are N combinations of parameter values, the total number of model recalculations will be NS.

A “progress” display indicates how quickly the simulation is progressing.  When the simulation is over, there will be a short delay while the outputs are processed. The output report is automatically placed in a new sheet named “Simulation Output n“, which YASAI inserts into the current workbook. YASAI makes this report the current sheet and then returns control to Excel. For each output-scenario combination, the report contains the mean, standard deviation, minimum, maximum, and percentiles in 5% intervals. Currently there are no graphics or other output data, although improvements are planned for later versions.

 

Aborting a Simulation

You can abort a YASAI simulation while it is running by clicking on the “Abort” button, or simply by pressing the escape key on your keyboard. It may take up to 5 seconds for the simulation to abort.  The abort function may not work on Mac Excel 2016.

 

Testing a Model Interactively

To test a model interactively, simply press the F9 key. Excel will perform a single recalculation, drawing new values for all the random variable generation functions. New values will also be generated for each PARAMETER function call (but in a predictable cyclic pattern). F9 is equivalent to fully recalculating all open workbooks. To recalculate only the currently active sheet, use Shift-F9 (or Fn-F9 on Mac systems).

 

Charting Simulation Output

As of version 2.0, YASAI can produce charts of simulation outputs.  You must run simulation before trying to produce charts.  To make a chart, select “Charts…” from the YASAI menu (or the “YASAI_Charts” button in Mac Excel 2016), which produces a charting dialog box):

You may chart up to five blocks of outputs, each corresponding to one row in the window.  The first column selects which variables to chart.  The second and third columns allow you to specify a range of scenarios for the selected variable, for example scenarios 1 through 5; a graph for each scenario in the range will appear in the output.  The last column selects the kind of graph desired for the block of variables: “Histogram” is a standard bar chart, and “Cumulative plot” produces empirical cumulative distributions.  You may mix the two kinds of graphs on a single chart.  With the “automatic” button set under “Chart Range” YASAI chooses the horizontal axis range and subdivisions to attempt to produce an attractive chart.  “Manual” lets you specify a range from “Min” to “Max”, with “Buckets” subdivisions.

YASAI charts are regular Excel charts.  Once they have been created, you may modify them to suit your needs.  The chart and its associated data each become a new worksheet ply, with the names “Chart Output n” and “Chart Data n“, repsectively.  You may delete these sheets if they are no longer needed.  YASAI charts are also “static” — they are based on the simulation immediately preceding their creation; if you run another simulation of the same model, they will not automatically update.  You must run a simulation again and make new charts if you want your charts to reflect a change to your simulation model.

Due to internal limitations in Excel, cumulative graphs are not possible for outputs with more than 32,760 observations. Histograms are possible for any sample size.  Histograms are not available when using Mac Excel 2011, due to a bug in that version of Excel.  Cumulative charts are available in all versions.

Show Min/Max Scenarios

As of version 3.0, YASAI can highlight minimum and maximum scenarios in the simulation output sheet. To use this functionality, select a cell of the simulation report containing the name of the simulation output variable for which you want to find the minimum or maximum average value for and then select the “Show Min Scenario” or “Show Max Scenario” menu item, as appropriate (in Mac Excel 2016, these respectively appear as “YASAI_Min_Highlight” or “YASAI_Max_Highlight” buttons in the add-in pane; in other versions they are under the “YASAI” popup in the add-ins pane).  This feature allows for quick identification of the best scenario without having to manually scan through the output report.

 

Hypothesis Testing

As of version 3.0, YASAI can run hypothesis tests to evaluate whether the differences between sample means of various outputs appears to be statisticaically significant.

After running a simulation, select “Hypothesis Test…” from the YASAI menu (in Mac Excel 2016, select the “YASAI_Hypothesis_Test” popup in the add-ins pane). Select a variables and scenarios for the pair of variables you wish to compare, as below.

The appropriate test is selected based on your preferences for random number generation in your simulation. If you opted to use the same random number seed for each scenario (the default option) in the simulation menu, or the two variables are from the same scenario, then a paired t-test will be run. If not, YASAI will use a non-paired t-test for unequal variances. After running the hypothesis test, a new sheet is created, which shows the 1-tailed and 2-tailed p-values from running the appropriate hypothesis test.  Additionally, the sheet shows all the observations for each the two variable-scenario pairs tested, which may be convenient for performing further analysis.

Generally speaking, small p-values mean that the the differences between the observed means of the two compared variables are very unlikely to have resulted from pure chance, whereas large p-lvalues means that the observed outcome was more likely to have arisen by chance.  The smaller the p-values, the more statistically significant is the difference between the variables’ sample means.

 

Known Problems

Updating Links
Excel uses a system of “links” to match user-defined functions (like those defined by YASAI) to their source files.  These links contain absolute filename paths, which often creates problems when moving files from one computer to another.  Generally speaking, you should just press the “continue” or “ignore links” or “don’t update links” button if Excel asks you if you want to “edit links” or “update links”.  Link-related problems have become less severe in recent years, but are still an occasional irritant.  If link updating fails, your spreadsheet formulas may contain strange-looking strings like “!’C:Users\JoeUser\…\YASAI.xla’:”.  If you delete these strings manually or with Excel’s “Replace” function, YASAI should start working normally again.

YASAI appears in the menu bar or ribbon, but the all YASAI spreadsheet functions evaluate to “#NAME!”
Excel’s security settings may be preventing YASAI from running. First, try select “Simulation…” from the YASAI item in the add-ins menu: in recent versions of Excel, simply activating the simulation dialog box is often enough to clear the “#NAME” errors. If not, you should modify Excel’s security settings to let YASAI run. If you see an “Enable content” button between the worksheet grid and the ribbon, try clicking it. If the problem persists, use the Excel Trust Center settings to enable macros.

After taking these steps, it may be necessary in some cases to place the cursor in each cell displaying as “#NAME” and hit the “enter” key to get Excel to properly reevaluate the formula and display a proper value.

Simulating Only the Current Workbook
The “Simulate all sheets” option recalculates all currently open workbooks. If it is not checked, each simulation point is obtained by recalculating only the currently active sheet. In some cases, it might be preferable to recalculate all sheets of the currently active workbook, but not sheets from other open workbooks. Unfortunately, Excel does not provide the functionality necessary to implement such recalculations; this is a longstanding internal limitation of Excel. If you have a single model that uses more than one sheet, you should generally close all other workbooks before running your simulation.

Known Problems Specific to Mac Systems

Developing VBA applications is much more difficult for Mac Excel than for Windows Excel, and VBA does not behave identically on Windows and Excel platforms.  Therefore there are a number of issues that affect only Mac users:

Mac Excel 2008
Mac Excel 2008 does not support Visual Basic, so it is impossible to use YASAI with it.

Mac Excel Performance
While YASAI supports Mac Excel 2011 and 2016, simulation performance can sometimes be poor. Excel 2016 performance seems to have improved as software updates have been released. If you use Mac Excel 2016, make sure it is recently updated.

Charts in Mac Excel 2011
Due to an apparent bug in Mac charting, histogram charts are not available when using Mac Excel 2011.  Cumulative charts are available on all platforms, including Mac Excel 2016.

Dumping Data Message in Mac Excel 2011
When creating the output report at the end fo the simulation in Mac Excel 2011, a message saying “dumping internal data” may be visible even if “dump internal simulation data” option was not selected.  This message is typically visible for only a very brief time.

Aborting in Mac Excel 2016
The abort function may not work in Mac Excel 2016.

Delayed Appearance of Add-Ins Pane in Mac Excel 2016
When you install YASAI in Mac Excel 2016, the add-ins pane and YASAI buttons may not appear for the current workbook. However, they will appear for all subsequently opened workbooks.

Mac Excel 2016 Location of Opened Worksheets
During testing of Mac Excel 2016, it has been observed that newly opened worksheets may appear with their windows at the extreme edge of the screen, usually just barely visible the extreme lower right corner.  At present it is not clear if this is due to YASAI or just a strange behavior of Mac Excel 2016.